Nov

Obama’s Troop Decision Comes With a Catch

McClatchy reported this morning that President Obama has finally stopped dithering and made a decision on troop levels in Afghanistan. He’s essentially splitting the difference between McChrystal’s medium and high risk plans and adding 34,000 more troops to the effort. He’ll make the official announcement next week.

President Barack Obama met Monday evening with his national security team to finalize a plan to dispatch some 34,000 additional U.S. troops over the next year to what he’s called “a war of necessity” in Afghanistan, U.S. officials told McClatchy.

Obama is expected to announce his long-awaited decision on Dec. 1, followed by meetings on Capitol Hill aimed at winning congressional support amid opposition by some Democrats who are worried about the strain on the U.S. Treasury and whether Afghanistan has become a quagmire, the officials said.

The U.S. officials all spoke on condition of anonymity because they weren’t authorized to discuss the issue publicly and because, one official said, the White House is incensed by leaks on its Afghanistan policy that didn’t originate in the White House.

But with Obama, there’s always a catch. This time it’s “off ramps” – or an exit strategy should he decide to cut and run. Ed Morrissey explained it really well.

The new plan contains the “off-ramps” Obama demanded from his national security team. Those begin to arrive as early as June, according to McClatchy, giving the US a few easy outs if Obama chooses to retreat. If the “political side” or the war itself doesn’t improve, Obama apparently wants to get out altogether. In other words, this looks like McChrystal’s last stand. Next week, McChrystal will return to DC in order to help Obama roll this out, where Obama will almost certainly get significant pushback from Democrats in Congress over the cost and the need to keep fighting.

The increase in troops is a good decision, but the off-ramps almost completely undermine it. The point in extending our footprint is to win the trust of the local communities and prove our reliability in providing them security, which is the central thrust of McChrystal’s COIN strategy. By getting them to trust our commitment, we can get them to help fight the Taliban themselves, as we did with the Anbar Awakening in Iraq against al-Qaeda, and greatly improve the intel we get from the locals. If we send 34,000 more troops but give ourselves a six-month time frame for success or bug-out, the locals will very quickly come to the realization that allying with us will be suicide. The COIN strategy only worked in Iraq because George W. Bush was adamant that we would stay until we won.

Morrissey goes on to explain that presidents don’t need “off ramps.” If a president decides it’s time to get out, that’s his call. This is just his way of diffusing blame if things don’t go well, and sends a signal of weakness to our enemies. You know, it’s just what you’d expect from Obama.

No word yet on whether Obama will veto any war tax.

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