The Taliban’s Economic Justification – Spend the Lives to Achieve Maximum ROI

When we think of suicide bombers we might think that it is one less radical, or we might think it is a tragic event. When 200 jihadis attack a remote American or NATO base with rifles, RPG’s, and perhaps some light artillery, the relatively few defenders call in massive air power and sophisticated weapons that exact a disproportionate number of casualties on the attackers. The suicide bombers do not endear themselves to the local populace and the attackers of the base may have gained a bit of ground, but suffered dearly for it.

To the Taliban and Al Qaida commanders these are precious and limited resources. They do not spend them without first considering their return on investment. Why are these attacks ramping up in Afghanistan now? Fundamentally, their commanders believe that now is a good time to invest. By spending their human capital now while they sense America wavering they are advancing their fight in ways huge military victories might not. And, they do not have the resources to win militarily.

What the Taliban commander sees is an American President that will not act. Whether that perception is right or wrong is not at issue, whether it will increase hostilities is. The answer is simple, if he senses he is making progress he will use the tools he has and more people will die in the process. That is a result that will favor the Taliban regardless of the military outcome.  The press continues to report “No decision to send more troops” and “Troop morale lower”. Both of these things are victories which embolden the opposition and result in increased activity.

While Obama deliberates he unwittingly escalates violence against our combined forces in Afghanistan. We only have to go back to Viet Nam to see the results of this tactic. And make no mistake, what the administration is employing is a tactic, not a strategy. The long term effect is failure, a failure some other administration will have to deal with.

The naivete of this president is not something new. There are still military commanders that suffered it’s effects in another war.  Some of them are in Arlington Cemetery for no other reason than their commander in chief failed in that job while striving to succeed as a politician. Every day that passes, every news report that suggests the war in Afghanistan is a liability rather than a necessity, every suggestion that Obama is a better commander than his generals drags us closer and closer to a failure that we do not need to suffer.

The Taliban commanders sense they are winning because they see signals that they are better commanders than the President and they are assured by Obama’s actions that the real military minds which could defeat them are no longer relevant.