This piece at Politico is interesting. We all know there are a number of ideologues who are perfectly willing to commit political suicide to pass their agenda. But are there enough who aren’t insane? Maybe.
As we enter the through-the-looking glass world of a Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.), House Democrats will hold a highly consequential caucus meeting to discuss the unpalatable set of options for threading the needle on heath care reform without a filibuster-proof Senate majority.
But the bottom line is this, aides close the situation say: Despite talk about how the White House wants to ram the measure through, resolve among terrified Democrats will likely crack if not crumble, even if Coakley somehow manages to pull out a win.
“If Nancy Pelosi pulls this off, she will be remembered as the greatest speaker in the history of the United States,” said a Democratic aide at the center of the health care talks. “Even though we all know how bad it will be on Wednesday morning, we don’t know until we live it. … The psychology will be totally different and working against getting anything done at all.”
The Democrats’ Hail Mary is budget reconciliation. The gimmick, used by former President George W. Bush on a couple of his big-ticket items, would allow the majorities to pass controversial measures with just 50 votes.
Reconciliation has always been favored by House liberals, but it now figures to play a pivotal role if they are forced to swallow the Senate’s health care bill — with its weakened anti-abortion language and unamended Cadillac tax — as the only path to passage.
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The second and far bigger hurdle is convincing utterly panicked senators and House members to spend an additional month or two on health care reform, at the precise moment it seems to be the party’s Waterloo.
“Sure you could say it’s worse because we didn’t pass anything,” says one staffer. “But it might be better to get past this as soon as possible and bring it up for a vote in the Senate; let the Republicans kill it — and then blame them for everything.” ….
And there’s this from Ezra Klein:
The bill, however, doesn’t have to go back through the Senate. It could be passed by the House and signed by the president. House Democrats are reticent to do that, because there are compromises and tweaks and modifications they want made. But those changes are far too small to be worth killing the bill over. And they could be added to the bill separately, through the 51-vote reconciliation process.
The bottom line here is that if the health-care bill fails, it will be Democrats who killed it, not Scott Brown. And people should be clear on that point.
The Daily Caller reported all the ways the Democrats can try to ram this through as soon as possible. But, it may not be so easy.
However, others close to the caucus were less confident.
“If Brown wins,” predicted one top Democrat, “we can’t yet see all of the ramifications — the party switches, the retirements. I lack sufficient creativity to envision how bad this is going to be for us.”
Republicans were already drawing up their lists of vulnerable Democrats in the House who they think will likely vote against any health-care bill now, even if Coakley were to win.
“It seems that that brain trust in the White House made a decision last January that they were willing to march 20 more centrist Democrats through a buzz saw to pass their ideological, liberal agenda. I don’t think they figured on a public revolt — on such backlash on it so quickly,” said Brad Dayspring, spokesman for House Minority Whip Eric Cantor, Virginia Republican.
“The president has lost 20 points in one year because of it, and now over 50 Democrats could lose their seats because of it,” Dayspring said. “The question for House Democrats now is whether they are willing to lose the majority, lose their seats, for a bill that they probably don’t like anyway. Their game plan seems to say they are.”
Cantor sent a memo Tuesday to senior House aides identifying 17 Democrats who are “most likely Democrats to oppose their leadership on the Obama/Pelosi/Reid government health-care bill.”
Cantor said three House Democrats — Rep. Bart Stupak of Michigan, Rep. Marcy Kaptur of Ohio and Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper of Pennsylvania — were “most vulnerable” on abortion. The Senate bill has fewer measures than the House bill to ensure that federal funds are not used for abortion.
However, a Kaptur spokesman said Tuesday that the congresswoman would “likely” vote for the Senate bill if it came to that.
“But it’s not a certainty,” said Steve Fought, Kaptur’s spokesman.
Other Democrats who might flip because of the abortion issue, Cantor said, are Rep. Jerry Costello of Illinois, Rep. Joe Donnelly of Indiana, Rep. Brad Ellsworth of Indiana, Rep. Dale Kildee of Michigan, Rep. Daniel Lipinski of Illinois, and Rep. James Oberstar of Minnesota.
Democrats identified as vulnerable to political pressure because of spending issues in particular are Rep. Christopher Carney of Pennsylvania, Rep. Earl Pomeroy of North Dakota, Rep. Dennis Cardoza of California, Rep. Jim Costa of California, Rep. Gerry Connolly of Virginia, Rep. Steve Driehaus of Ohio, Rep. Kurt Schrader of Oregon and Rep. Zack Space of Ohio.
I guess we’ll find out soon enough what they’re going to do. But Democrats who are scared today will certainly be terrified tomorrow should Scott Brown win the election in Massachusetts.
Find out what others are saying here, here and here.
