Are there Enough Democrats Willing to Commit Political Suicide to Pass ObamaCare?

That’s the big question. We all know Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid are anything but moderate. They have a vision for America and they’re perfectly willing to commit political suicide to “fundamentally transform” our republic. Obama’s all but made that obvious. They don’t care that the majority of Americans loathe what they’re doing.

But, do they have enough “moderates” to march over the cliff with them? I tend to think they do. The “moderates” have been anything but moderate, if you ask me. Andy McCarthy seems to think they’ll ram this through knowing full well that once enacted, social programs are never rolled back.

Consequently, the next six weeks, like the next ten months, are going to be worse than we think. We’re wired to think that everyone plays by the ususal rules of politics — i.e., if the tide starts to change, the side against whom it has turned modifies its positions in order to stay viable in the next election. But what will happen here will be the opposite. You have a party with the numbers to do anything it puts its mind to, led by movement Leftitsts who see their window of opportunity is closing. We seem to expect them to moderate because that’s what everybody in their position does. But they won’t. They will put their heads down and go for as much transformation as they can get, figuring that once they get it, it will never be rolled back. The only question is whether there are enough Democrats who are conventional politicians and who care about being reelected, such that they will deny the leadership the numbers it needs. But I don’t think we should take much heart in this possibility. Those Democrats may well come to think they are going to lose anyway — that’s why so many of them are abandoning ship now. If that’s the case, their incentive will be to vote with the leadership.

Ed Morrissey is a bit more optimistic, but not much.

That doesn’t mean that they can’t get bulldozed into compliance, but it does make it a more difficult proposition for Pelosi to hold her caucus together.  We’re already seeing signs of it splintering, and as this effort gets closer to the midterm elections, that will increase proportionately.  Blue Dogs are already unhappy with the direction of ObamaCare — and so are progressives, but for diametrically opposed reasons.  The summit may have helped to pull recalcitrant moderates in line, but Democrats got punked at the televised spectacle and have no fig leaf to wear to support a radical mechanism in pushing through a radical bill.

Andy may be right that Democratic leadership has made the decision that political oblivion is an acceptable cost for a one-time remaking of America that Republicans will find difficult to reverse in the next session.  However, I suspect that this strategy doesn’t account for the fact that the people who will actually have to end their careers may not appreciate getting forced into marching off a cliff while the leadership stays safely in their rear-echelon bastions of San Francisco and New York City.

Moe Lane believes that even if this monstrosity passes it can be undone.

…and I’d like to add my two cents: it won’t work anyway.  People like to talk about how government programs and agencies never die, once instituted, with the Great Society and the New Deal being the most used examples.  What’s not mentioned is that both of those programs were popular.  People wanted a Social Security program.  They wanted Medicare.  They do not notably want this monstrosity of a health care bill*.  And if the Democrats decide to (and manage to) force it down our throats anyway, Republican legislators will find a way to shut it down in January 2011.  The government has had over two and a quarter centuries to develop bylaws, operational procedures, codicils, and whatnot; there is always going to be a legislative fig leaf, suitable for framing and rationalization.

I consider this bill dead.  But if the Democrats are so determined to resurrect it, fine: we’ll just prune their internal power structure down to the roots in November and kill the bill again in January.  In fact, that sounds kind of fun.

I tend to agree with McCarthy. But Lane makes a good point. That, coupled with the fact that it will take several years for anybody to see any benefits from ObamaCare gives me a glimmer of hope. A very faint glimmer. These aren’t normal people we’re dealing with.

Via memeorandum