Larry Sabato is predicting the Democrats will be beaten up pretty badly this November. I can’t wait.
The Crystal Ball’s predictions are clinical. We are fond of people in both parties. We cheer for no one.
2010 was always going to be a Republican year, in the midterm tradition. It has simply been a question of degree. Several scenarios were possible, depending in large measure on whether, or how quickly, the deeply troubled American economy recovered from the Great Recession. Had Democratic hopes on economic revitalization materialized, it is easy to see how the party could have used its superior financial resources, combined with the tendency of Republicans in some districts and states to nominate ideological fringe candidates, to keep losses to the low 30s in the House and a handful in the Senate.
But conditions have deteriorated badly for Democrats over the summer. The economy appears rotten, with little chance of a substantial comeback by November 2nd. Unemployment is very high, income growth sluggish, and public confidence quite low. The Democrats’ self-proclaimed “Recovery Summer” has become a term of derision, and to most voters—fair or not—it seems that President Obama has over-promised and under-delivered.
I love the way Republican candidates who vow to uphold the Constitution are referred to as “fringe” candidates. That’s how far we’ve come from even resembling a republican form of government. Good grief. But I digress.
The article goes on to predict that the Republicans will have a net gain of 47 seats. Sabato did a district-by-district analysis, so it isn’t based simply on Obama’s unpopularity or the predicted low democrat turnout at the polls. He also predicts the GOP could pick up 8 or 9 seats in the Senate, and that a full take over is a possibility. There’s no mention of what effect the shenanigans of the unions and other outside groups could have on the election.
We’re down to sixty days. What have you done to help elect a conservative to Congress today?
Tags: conservative, defeat, Democrats, larry sabato, mid-term, prediction, republican, sweep
I like Sabato but he is very conservative in his predictions. He tends to under estimate any Republican battle until the hand writing is on the wall. His record will always look good but he isn’t the leader of the pack on political polling.
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