The Siena College poll released Friday shows 36 percent of likely voters supporting Corwin and 31 percent favoring Hochul. With the May 24 special election about a month away, Tea Party candidate Jack Davis received 23 percent and Green Party candidate Ian Murphy trailed with 5 percent.
The first and perhaps, one of the only polls, we’ll see on NY-26 is out and it looks like a close race. TPM wants it to mean that NY-26 is in play:
In a potential replay of the 2009 NY-23 special election that saw a third-party candidacy turn a red-leaning district blue, a Tea Party candidate is threatening to hand Democrats an upset in the race to replace resigned Republican Rep. Chris Lee in NY-26.
But, just to give you an idea how lost their analysis is:
In a parallel to the NY-23 race, the Republican candidate’s more moderate positions — Corwin is pro-choice — have left an opening for attacks from her right.
Both Corwin’s opponent’s Jack Davis and Kathy Hochul are far larger pro-choicers, thus pro-choice is not really an issue in the race.
In reality, there is a lot about this poll that is interesting and much more so than the punditry is going to tell you.
First of all, Kathy Hochul is running a campaign strictly as a referendum on the Paul Ryan budget. The problem is that the Republican plan is creaming the Obama plan. According to the poll, 53-36 people want to see the next NY-26 candidate support the Republican plan. This includes a 55-31 split for Republicans amongst Independents.
Second of all, it would appear that Jack Davis isn’t only bilking Jane Corwin on votes, but he’s doing lot’s of damage to Democrat Kathy Hochul; particularly in the area of Independents. Green Party Ian Murphy is also stealing from Hochul. Republicans over Democrats, slightly favor Davis more by about 4%. A pretty small margin even though Davis is taking 23% of the vote.
Finally, Hochul’s biggest problem is in the undecided category. Only 5% of Democrats are undecided to 11% Republicans and 9% independents. At the end of the day, it might be a closer race between Jack Davis and Jane Corwin.
According to WSJ, Republicans have a 7 point edge in the enrollment for the district and Corwin is up by 5. That gives you an idea how little impact Davis is really having on Corwin.
The truth is, this race is not as close as the media would like to bill it.
Didn’t Sienna do the poll before the November election finding Dan Maffei with a double digit lead over Ann Marie Buerkle?
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Yes. They suck at congressional polling. They said the same about Bishop/Altshuler. Had Nan Hayworth only eeking out a small victory over John Hall (it was a massacre). They also had Arcuri beating Hanna, etc, etc, etc
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You keep telling yourself that. With the T-bagger in the race, and the wonderful town halls the republicans are having, Kathy will steal this seat by 2 points
35-33-2
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@ Justin Barkos
Thank you for correcting me, I was not considering the idea that Kathy could try and “steal” the election as you say. With the margin of Democrat voter fraud, I believe Kathy could in fact win by two points as you propose.
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[...] of her Democrat/Independent vote. Murphy doesn’t have even the slightest chance of winning, but he’s on the ballot and a negative factor for Hochul, which is why the Siena Poll had him in their [...]
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[...] were already pretty much a mess, but Republican Jane Corwin seemed to be holding on to a thin, but comfortable lead. But with the election only a couple of weeks away, at least one sampling has the race pretty [...]
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Watch the GOP snare defeat from the Jaws of Victory.
Steve
Common Cents
http://www.commoncts.blogspot.com
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lol. They do have a talent don’t they?
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[...] is a reason why Nancy Pelosi’s support was so silent. According to a Siena Poll in NY-26, Nancy Pelosi’s approval is 25 percent to 67 percent [...]
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[...] reason has to do with campaigning. The Siena Poll released two very interesting, but contradictory poll findings. The media has affixed themselves, like a parasite, to one of [...]
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[...] a slight variance in ideology from the two polls; today’s poll is 35% Dem, 41% Rep and 21% Ind, but two weeks ago it was 32% Dem, 41% Rep, 24% Ind. It’s a small difference, but with the highly partisan split in this [...]
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[...] NY-26 Poll: Jane Corwin leads by only 5 in Siena Poll, but the gulf is wide [...]
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[...] numbers to her position on Medicare routinely ignore recent poll data showing that NY-26 voters, by a 53 to 36 margin, want their representative to support the Republican Medicare [...]
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