NY-26 Poll: Jane Corwin leads by only 5 in Siena Poll, but the gulf is wide

Via WSJ:

The Siena College poll released Friday shows 36 percent of likely voters supporting Corwin and 31 percent favoring Hochul. With the May 24 special election about a month away, Tea Party candidate Jack Davis received 23 percent and Green Party candidate Ian Murphy trailed with 5 percent.

The first and perhaps, one of the only polls, we’ll see on NY-26 is out and it looks like a close race. TPM wants it to mean that NY-26 is in play:

In a potential replay of the 2009 NY-23 special election that saw a third-party candidacy turn a red-leaning district blue, a Tea Party candidate is threatening to hand Democrats an upset in the race to replace resigned Republican Rep. Chris Lee in NY-26.

But, just to give you an idea how lost their analysis is:

In a parallel to the NY-23 race, the Republican candidate’s more moderate positions — Corwin is pro-choice — have left an opening for attacks from her right.

Both Corwin’s opponent’s Jack Davis and Kathy Hochul are far larger pro-choicers, thus pro-choice is not really an issue in the race.

In reality, there is a lot about this poll that is interesting and much more so than the punditry is going to tell you.

First of all, Kathy Hochul is running a campaign strictly as a referendum on the Paul Ryan budget. The problem is that the Republican plan is creaming the Obama plan. According to the poll, 53-36 people want to see the next NY-26 candidate support the Republican plan. This includes a 55-31 split for Republicans amongst Independents.

Second of all, it would appear that Jack Davis isn’t only bilking Jane Corwin on votes, but he’s doing lot’s of damage to Democrat Kathy Hochul; particularly in the area of Independents. Green Party Ian Murphy is also stealing from Hochul. Republicans over Democrats, slightly favor Davis more by about 4%. A pretty small margin even though Davis is taking 23% of the vote.

Finally, Hochul’s biggest problem is in the undecided category. Only 5% of Democrats are undecided to 11% Republicans and 9% independents. At the end of the day, it might be a closer race between Jack Davis and Jane Corwin.

Siena NY26 Poll Crosstabs

According to WSJ, Republicans have a 7 point edge in the enrollment for the district and Corwin is up by 5. That gives you an idea how little impact Davis is really having on Corwin.

The truth is, this race is not as close as the media would like to bill it.