11:10 pm: Of the counties fully reported, here were the spreads:
Jane Corwin won Livingston County by a spread of 47-42.
Jane Corwin won Monroe County by a spread of 45 -44.
Jane Corwin won Orleans 47-40.
Jane Corwin won Wyoming 51-36
Kathy Hochul won Niagara 47-39
10:41 pm: News sites are still slow to update returns. While the media will spin this race as a referendum on Paul Ryan’s budget plan, we all know that it was Hochul’s genius to double the population of Buffalo with high speed rail that really put her over.
10:21 pm: Websites stopped updating regularly, so we are waiting for the final vote count. The big question will be, was Davis a factor? Current tally says no.
Also, a look at outstanding absentee’s:
- Erie County: Approximately 2,200 out. No firm number on the number returned. That will be tallied tomorrow.
- Monroe County: 924 out, 422 back.
- Orleans County: 213 out, 132 back.
- Niagara County: 1,101 out, 733 back.
- Livingston County: 521 out, 375 back.
- Wyoming County: 250 out, 234 back.
- Genesee County: 633 out, 415 back.
Note that Hochul strongholds are at least half the ballots. Unless the end count is very narrow…we will not have the race drawn out.
10:10 pm: Concession from Corwin?
10:08 pm: AP calls it for Hochul!
10:06 pm: 66% of precincts are reported and Hochul has about a 4,500 vote lead…nearly all from Erie County. Many of the other counties have yet to be counted.
10:03 pm: Half of Wyoming is now counted, Corwin is winning by a spread of 14 points.
10:01 pm: Still no reporting from Genesee and Orleans counties. If turnout was in fact high in these counties, Jane Corwin emerge the winner.
Kathy Hochul D 38,135 48.53%
Jane Corwin R 33,144 42.18%
Jack Davis 6,458 8.22%
Ian Murphy 839 1.07%
9:56 pm: Livingston County is fully counted. Corwin wins by a margin of 5%. Not a poor showing.
9:54 pm: With 50% of the precincts reporting Davis isn’t going to be pulling above an 8%. This will likely be a close race.
Kathy Hochul D 34,162 47.81%
Jane Corwin R 30,566 42.77%
Jack Davis 5,941 8.31%
Ian Murphy 791 1.11%
9:48 pm: 1/4 of Wyoming County now counted, 9 point spread in favor of Corwin. Genesee and Orleans have yet to report. If turnout was good in those counties, Jane Corwin may walk away. Aside from Erie, Hochul is not leading in any of the other counties.
9:45 pm: Hochul is coming on strong in Erie County. 1/2 the districts reported in Erie and Hochul has a 17 point spread on Corwin; the Siena Poll had a 12 point spread. GOW counties have only yet to trickle in with reporting, but it is definitely a good showing for Hochul.
Kathy Hochul D 29,175 47.56%
Jane Corwin R 26,395 43.03%
Jack Davis 5,116 8.34%
Ian Murphy 661 1.08%
9:40 pm: 2/3 of Livingston County is counted, it’s swinging 4% to Corwin. Not an overly powerful number, but better than the Siena Polling results. In case you just joined, I’m using last weekend’s Siena County by County polling as a base line. If Corwin outperforms the polling, she should win.
9:36 pm: Jack Davis is taking double digits in home Niagara County. 1/3 of Monroe County is counted and so far Hochul/Corwin are split (good for Corwin). 1/4 of Erie County is counted, Hochul is out performing her Siena Polling in Erie.
9:33 pm: Jack Davis thus far has stayed in the single digits. However, I suspect that that 8% will not be low enough for Jane Corwin. The GOW counties, which will swing Corwin, are still not reporting…
Kathy Hochul D 15,191 48.14%
Jane Corwin R 13,337 42.26%
Jack Davis 2,724 8.63%
Ian Murphy 307 0.97%
9:28 pm: Here’s an update on standings…of the counties Corwin is strongest, only Livingston County is reporting at the moment. So far Davis is doing well in Niagara and Erie, but mid-single digits outside.
Kathy Hochul D 10,401 48.06%
Jane Corwin R 9,055 41.84%
Jack Davis 1,960 9.06%
Ian Murphy 225 1.04%
9:25 pm: For an election all about mediscare, I seem to hear a lot of pundits spending all their time on Davis’ performance. It’s like there is some other, non-referendum reason the race is tilting Hochul?
Via Buffalo News:
A political analyst told me yesterday that if Davis gets 12-15%, it’s curtains for Corwin…
9:19 pm: Initial numbers are pouring in. So far, mostly from Hochul dominated areas, but at first blush, it looks like both candidates performed very well in the areas they needed to win.
County Precincts Kathy Hochul
(Dem) Jane Corwin
(GOP) I. Murphy
(Grn) J. Davis
(TEA)
Total 2/627 1,017
55% 582
32% 14
1% 224
12%
Erie 0/183 0
0% 0
0% 0
0% 0
0%
Genesee 0/53 0
0% 0
0% 0
0% 0
0%
Livingston 1/61 31
29% 65
61% 4
4% 7
7%
Monroe 0/158 0
0% 0
0% 0
0% 0
0%
Niagara 1/100 986
57% 517
30% 10
1% 217
13%
9:17 pm: Stacy McCain also live blogging from his digs. He reports “Still tied at zero”
9:12 pm: Buffalo News continues to report strong turnout in Corwin strongholds of the GLOW counties:
The bulk of the voters are in Erie and Monroe but it appears voters in the so-called GLOW (Genesee, Livingston, Orleans and Wyoming counties) area of the district are turning out in greater numbers.
9:10 pm: Heated NY elections have a history of high turnout. NY-20 in 2009 set the record for largest turnout in a special election
9:04 pm: Corwin campaign reports strong turnout for their key counties.
The Corwin campaign is reporting higher than expected turnout in rural counties such as Genesee, Livingston, Orleans and Wyoming. They report turnout there is 35 to 40 percent, which bodes well for Corwin. They report turnout in Erie, Niagara and Monroe is much lower, around 20-25 percent.
8:51 pm: Here is what you want to know about NY-26 as the returns come in:
The largest population centers are around Erie County. Hochul needs to win big there. The area’s outside are mostly, strongly, Republican territory. The last Siena Poll had Katy Hochul up by 4 points and polled on a breakdown of counties. Thus, this would be a good example of what the spreads would be for a Hochul victory:
Erie County: 50% Kathy Hochul, 38% Jane Corwin, 9% Jack Davis
Monroe/Livingston Counties: 36% Kathy Hochul, 40% Jane Corwin, 12% Jack Davis
Niagara/Orleans/Genesee/Wyoming Counties: 37% Kathy Hochul, 36% Jane Corwin, 17% Jack Davis
Update 3 by Karen: It’s still about 15 minutes until polls close, but the election results can be found here as they are reported.
Update 2 by Karen: According to Hotline on Call, turnout has been fairly heavy in the Democrat stronghold of Erie County. We still have nearly 45 minutes until polls close. Also, the race is expected to be close, so keep an eye on those absentee ballots. According to Liz Benjamin there are about 6,400 outstanding paper ballots. So unless there’s a pretty clear winner tonight, it could be a while before we know the outcome of this race.
Update by Karen: Polls are open until 9 PM ET. The Davis campaign may have broken election laws, and that kooky Green Party candidate (the same guy who called WI Governor Scott Walker pretending to be one of the Koch brothers) infiltrated Corwin’s phone bank. Ugh!
7:19 am: NY-26 is my home district and I’ll be checking in and out throughout today to give election updates. Tonight, I’ll be live blogging the returns. Also, I’m toying with showing up at Jane Corwin headquarters for some shoe leather reporting. I haven’t made up my mind (it’s early in the work week), so leave me a note in the comments if you’d be interested in having someone reporting live from the trenches.
As I’ve pointed out, the race is really about Jack Davis’ spoiler potential. The lower he performs today, the better the chances of a Corwin victory. So the question is: Are 13 percent of voters really going to vote for crazy Jack Davis?
Also of note, many of the undecideds in the weeks rolling up to the election are Republicans. So, the outcome of the election is up to Republicans to win or lose. They can fall for the fake Tea Party candidate in Jack Davis or the real conservative Jane Corwin.
Here are links to my coverage so far:
Jack Davis breaks campaign promise two days before NY-26 election
Latest NY-26 Siena Poll: Kathy Hochul holds a tenuous 4 point lead over Jane Corwin
Tea Party Express endorses Jane Corwin in NY-26, denounces fake tea candidate Davis
Updated:Kathy Hochul flip-flops on Medicare, but media won’t cover the story
Bob Lonsberry unendorses Fake Tea candidate Jack Davis in NY-26
Jack Davis: the first Tea Party rino
Nancy Pelosi endorses Kathy Hochul in NYC Fundraiser
NY-26 Media: It’s Jane Corwin’s fault Jack Davis assaulted someone
Fake Tea Party Candidate Jack Davis Assaults Camera Man – Video
Jane Corwin Signs Pledge to Protect Taxpayers
Carl Paladino gets “Mad as Hell” over Jack Davis’ run as a Fake Tea Party Candidate for NY-26
NY-26: Jack Davis is the First Tea-In-Name-Only
NY-26 Poll has Kathy Hochul leading by 4
NY-26 Poll: Jane Corwin leads by only 5 in Siena Poll, but the gulf is wide
Kathy Hochul’s mask fell off in NYC, was picked up by news media
Jack Davis steps through door number one: feigns amnesia with regards to his political beliefs
Months after Tea Partiers were Protesting, Jack Davis was supporting progressive politicians
Jack Davis, Tea Party candidate and champion of the economics of Paul Krugman
If Albany is the problem, why is Kathy Hochul running for congress?
Kathy Hochul, Democrat for NY-26 special, thinks high speed rail will double the size of Buffalo
NY26 – Jane Corwin is No Dede Scozzafava
I’ll be on the edge of my seat watching for the returns. Looking forward to your updates.
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Oh, and if you want we can bump this post back to the top of the page later on.
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“As I’ve pointed out, the race is really about Jack Davis’ spoiler potential”
Except as Davis support collapsed those voters went no to the republican but to the Dem. That means there’s something else going on here. The GOP has alienated a bunch of voters in this cycle, most likely due to Ryan’s plan to cut medicare while giving tax cuts to the wealthy.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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If we look at the last several cycles results:
2000 D+25%
2002 R+51%
2004 R+11%
2006 R+4%
2008 R+15%
2010 R+47%
So in the last 5 cycles the district has gone R even during dem wave years. So no the tea party candidate getting 8% doesn’t rally explain the swing to the dems unless 2011 is a wave year on par with 2006 (when dems gained 31 seats).
In the Siena poll (here: http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/Parents_and_Community/Community_Page/SRI/SNY_Poll/CD26%20May%202011%20Crosstabs.pdf) you find medicare listed as the single highest reason for voters to choose a candidate as well as why 38% chose to vote Hochul.
So yeah this vote is very much about the Ryan plan the third party candidate is a minor detail.
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The funny thing was the R+4 year was when Jack Davis ran as a Democrat.
If you look at that same Siena, you’ll see that cutting the deficit plus taxes took a larger share of the reason to vote. Hochul received poor marks on both. Republican issues were a greater share of concern than Democrat ones. Jack Davis took the lead on the number two issue, jobs.
So no, Medicare still, really didn’t have much to do with it, but if you want to continue, I really do enjoy this.
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“If you look at that same Siena, you’ll see that cutting the deficit plus taxes took a larger share of the reason to vote”
So then how do you explain the dem wining a heavily GOP district by 6%? DO you think NY voters find it likely the dem will do a better job cutting the deficit and keeping taxes low?
There’s really no good way to spin this for the GOP. If you choose to ignore the effect of medicare on the race you certainly can.
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Just for accuracy sake, it’s down to 5% and still going down as they count.
If your theory that Medicare as the big issue touted by 1/5th those polled, then it is obvious from what I already pointed out. That Jack Davis was leading in the second largest issue, he took 9% of the vote.
Jack Davis was a spoiler.
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If I’m a medicare denier, you are a jobs denier.
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44% of Davis voters cited jobs as the reason to vote for him but notice that both the dem and the rep had 17% of their voters voting for them for that same issue. Davis would only be a spoiler if his voters split overwhelmingly for the rep but that’s not the case. Look at question 5, those with a favorable view of Davis slightly favored Hochul over Corwin.
No matter how you try the numbers just do not support the contention that Davis spoiled the race for Corwin. If he had not been in the race all the data suggests Hochul would have had a slightly larger lead.
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Tlaloc – I sincerely commend you and your dissent. I’m very thankful, that you are reasoning with fact and numbers…instead of regurgitating wha twas read about some pundits opinion.
Now, to your point, which is valid based on the numbers in the poll, but I’d caution you; with a 4% margin of error, those variations within question 5 are pretty small, perhaps statistically negligible.
The point I was trying to make is, it’s fair to say that jobs would have been a big issue without Jack Davis. Which is an irreconcilable element to the race and runs interference with the Medicare narrative. You can argue that without Davis touting jobs, everyone would have been focused on Medicare instead or that Kathy Hochul would have won the topic. But you really don’t know. That’s the point.
But, I do know that Kathy Hochul herself, when fundraising in NYC touted the fact that Jack Davis was going to split the vote with Corwin. No mention of Medicare. I know that Davis, not Medicare was the issue, because that’s what Kathy Hochul told me.
http://lonelyconservative.com/2011/04/kathy-hochul%E2%80%99s-mask-fell-off-in-nyc-was-picked-up-by-news-media/
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And while you’re on it, don’t forget your loser hat or the big “L” sign right on your forehead.
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[...] people to know the truth about who’s destroying “Medicare as we know it.” In the NY26 special election, if the fake tea party candidate Jack Davis manages to pull enough votes from Republican Jane [...]
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Is it really a “live” blog when it hasn’t had any entries in 12 hours? Just a philosophical musing…
Hot debate. What do you think?
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[...] NY-26 Election Results via Live-Blog: Will Jane Corwin, Kathy Hochul or Jack Davis win | The Lonely … __________________ "Fascism should more appropriately be called Corporatism because it is a merger of state and corporate power." Benito Mussolini [...]
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It is Democratic areas, not Democrat areas. Will you baggers ever learn English or the spelling of it? Stop embarrassing real Americans.
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Democrat is a person, Democratic is a process.
I find most Democrats are not Democratic.
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The turnout is higher in the rural counties because they are voting for the Democrat. The old, fat welfare Queen baggers dont want to lose their big Government provided medicare. Hypocrites.
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Keep it up with the “baggers” crap and I’ll ban you just because I’m in a bad mood.
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[...] Linked by The Lonely Conservative — thanks! [...]
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Looks like lonelyconservative is going to be one Congress Representative lonlier.
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Ban me, who cares? I just came hear to laff at you morAnic baggers. All we real Amerikans laff at you people.
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Good idia, right wingnuts! Run an election campane based on destroying healthcare for the elderly and poor. Looks like 2012 will be an even bigger landslide for Dems than 2008 was.
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* campaign
“Will you (trolls) ever learn English or the spelling of it? Stop embarrassing real Americans.”
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So what if I can’t speel. You people are like spoiled 5 year olds.
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You dirty filthy animol.
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Hochul declared the winner! Sorry morAnic baggers. You cant even win in a 75% Republican district. Keep trying to destry medicare and social securaty.
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Corwin will emerj the winner? Hochul was already declared winner, morAn.
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Bye, bye, nutcase!
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Supposedly AP has called the race for Hochul.
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There won’t be any official results tonight. Last I checked, two counties haven’t even reported yet. And there are over 6,000 paper ballots left to count.
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I think the problem is that Paul Ryan has not had a chance to explain his plan to the good voters of America. I say nominate Paul Ryan to run against Obama!
GO PAUL!!! GO RYAN!!! WE CAN’T WAIT!!
I am dead serious – Ryan needs the opportunity – he has a plan, the Dems have only taxes!!
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Ryan does not want to give tax breaks to the wealthy, that is a lie. He only follows the great example of John Galt. Atlas shrugs off Obambi the Mow-Mow. Go PAUL!!!
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Just checked the AP results.
Huchul 49%, corwin 42%, Murphy 1%, and Davis 9%.
That adds up to 110%.
How can they call who wins if they can’t even add?
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it adds to 102%, not 110. More to the point the actual values are 48.4, 42.11, 8.41, and 1.08 which adds to 100.
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oops, reading to fast. mybad.
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CNN Just Projected the same thing Kathy Hochul Wins Special election.
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The Tea Baggers will be the death of the Republican Party. Only candidates that drink the koolaid will make it to the general election and polling is clear: tax breaks for the wealthy, privatizing Medicare and reductions to Social Security are unpopular across all demographics. Keep up the good work guys. Protect the Democratic Party from any thoughtful, realistic criticism!
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a few words for you Scott.
They say Republicans are for the rich, Democrats are for the poor.
If they need more voters,
then they have to make more of who they are for.
When you vote, it’s for someone who will raise taxes, or for someone who won’t.
We are there in the various Tea Party groups, leaderless, but not rudderless.
We steer always toward the Constitutional principles this nation was founded upon.
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The problem with your analysis is that Jack Davis is not from the tea party, nor was he tea party endorsed. He’s a democrat posing as a conservative.
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[...] Kathy Hochul has won NY-26. Let the spin, begin. Democrats scored an upset in one of New York’s most conservative Congressional districts on Tuesday, dealing a blow to the national Republican Party in a race that largely turned on the party’s plan to overhaul Medicare. [...]
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Thanks for the very detailed updates, TLC. I do, however, disagree about your thoughts on why Hochul won. Like it or not, it was a referendum against Ryan’s “kill medicare” plan. Whether or not this plan is good really doesn’t matter, as its PERCEIVED to be the end of medicare for seniors. The Dems drove the message in this election, instead of the Republicans – bad move! And, the Dems used the same scare tactics Republicans used to turn the tides on the Universal Healthcare plan in 2010. The GOP needs to regroup as its splintered. That said, I like that things have been shaken up on both sides over the last year or so. Both sides need a wake-up call. Thanks again for the coverage.
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