It finally happened. Public Policy Polling released a poll that I have no problem with and it has Democrat Kathy Hochul in the lead by four in NY-26.
The biggest question, of course, is whether a third-party rich guy vanity candidate like Davis can hold on to his share of the vote once people actually go to the polls. It seems like more often than not, characters like Davis see their support slide by election day—but that’s just two weeks away, so perhaps he can hang on, given the short timeframe. Davis’s favorables are less bad than I had expected, an even 43-43. Corwin, meanwhile, is slightly underwater at 39-42, while Hochul is the only one in positive territory at 46-40.
The biggest development is that Jack Davis is officially taking up the spoiler role. He is drawing 19 percent of Democrats and 24 percent of Republicans. However, the spoiler really shows in two demographics. He has split the Tea Party vote, 47 Corwin and 37 Davis. He is also drawing a large share of independents away from Corwin, 20 Corwin and 31 Davis.
Tea Party fake, Jack Davis, seems to be selling the rouse. A vote for Davis is a vote for Hochul.