I try not to put too much weight into polls at this point in an election. But some strange things have been going on lately. First we heard that there’s a chance Illinois could be competitive, however slim. Now come two polls showing Mitt Romney moving ahead of President Obama after Paul Ryan was added to the GOP ticket in Wisconsin and Michigan. Wisconsin isn’t all that much of a surprise, but Michigan isn’t supposed to be a swing state.
Paul Ryan has propelled Mitt Romney into the lead over President Obama in the critical battleground state of Wisconsin, according to the latest survey from liberal-leaning Public Policy Polling.
Romney edges Obama 48 percent to 47, according to the poll, which has a 2.7 percent margin of error.
That’s a 7 percentage point gain for Romney, who trailed Obama 50 to 44 in the previous PPP poll, taken in July, before Rep. Ryan (R-Wis.) was added to the GOP ticket.
It’s the second consecutive survey of Wisconsin to find Romney has overtaken the president following the selection of Ryan as his running mate. A survey earlier this month from conservative-leaning polling outlet Rasmussen also gave Romney a 48-47 lead in the state.
Foster McCollum White Baydoun (FMW)B, a national public opinion polling and voter analytics consulting firm based in Michigan and representing the combined resources of Foster McCollum White & Associates (Troy, Michigan) and Baydoun Consulting (Dearborn, Michigan) conducted a telephone-automated polling random survey of Michigan registered and most likely November 2012 general election voters to determine their voting preferences.
FMWB says this will be a significant blow to Democratic campaign efforts, native son Mitt Romney has climbed into the lead in Michigan’s Presidential contest. The naming of Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan has delivered a targeted affect on the Michigan and Midwest campaign dynamics. We ballot tested the Presidential candidates and we also tested the following two areas of initial campaign impact and awareness:
- Congressman Ryan’s impact on voters’ decision to vote for Mitt Romney.
- Congressman Ryan’s controversial 2012 fiscal budget plan and voters support or opposition to the plan.
It is FMWB’s conclusion that the results to these questions will help initially either validate Ryan’s selection or provide messaging for Democrats that Ryan is not acceptable to the voters. As our data outlines, currently Romney and Ryan are received positively enough to help vault Romney into the lead.
I’ve never heard of FMWB. Maybe reader “Michigan” can fill us in in the comments. Either way, this news has to be making Obama pretty nervous. (Even if Todd Akin is going Obama and his party a big favor.)