Here we are, one more day until the presidential election is finally over. I can’t wait. Some, or most, of the polls we’ve been seeing are ridiculous. They oversample Democrats and declare President Obama the winner, or a tie, even though independents are going for Romney by huge margins in some cases. Take the latest Pew poll that Da TechGuy ripped into this morning.
Pew interviewed 2709 people, 2611 identified themselves as either Republicans Democrats or Independents by their own count 843 Republicans, 1007 democrats and 761 independents. That works out to the following:
Democrats 1007 / 2709 = 37.1%
Republicans 843 / 2709 = 31.1%
Independents 761 / 2709 = 28.8%
So right off the bat we have a poll with a base advantage for Democrats of 6 pts. Even though both Gallup and Rasmussen have told us that the electorate is majority GOP this time around.
That would be enough to laugh this poll off but the mathematical legerdemain doesn’t end there.
All year we were told that this election was going to be who by he who took the independent voters. If you look at this new Pew poll who is leading among independents? Why lo and behold it is….Mitt Romney by 44% to 41% The GOP goes for Romney 91-7 & dems for Obama 94-5
But that doesn’t matter, apparently at this late date the independent vote that was so important just a few months ago doesn’t matter in election 2012 anymore.
That’s strike two but you need three strikes for an out, is there a third one? Guess what, there is! (Read More)
Romney has gained 3 points since the last time CNN ran its poll, in late September, when Obama led 50%-47%. That is good news for the Republican ticket, especially since the poll was conducted after Hurricane Sandy.
Yet there is something odd–and even ridiculous–in the poll’s sample: of the 693 likely voters in the total sample of 1,010 adults polled, “41% described themselves as Democrats, 29% described themselves as Independents, and 30% described themselves as Republicans.”
In other words, the poll is a D+11 outlier. It presents a picture of an electorate that is far more pro-Obama than it was in the historic 2008 election. That is extremely unlikely.
Moreover, the polls’s crosstabs indicate that Romney is winning self-described independent voters by a giant 59%-37% margin. A 22-point lead among independents virtually guarantees victory for Romney. Yet Democrats are so heavily over-represented in the CNN poll that Romney’s 22-point lead becomes a mere 49%-49% tie. (Read More)
A tie with a D+11 sample and Romney winning independents by 22%. What’s that tell you? Daniel Flynn wrote about the polls at Front Page Magazine and puts it into perspective.
But even the most slanted polls aren’t totally useless. The percentage of independents that they survey differs. The attitude of the independents they survey remains consistent. In poll after poll, independent voters support Mitt Romney over Barack Obama. The Republican leads Obama 51-39 among independents in both the National Public Radio and CBS/New York Times/Quinnipiac polls. In theInvestor’s Business Daily/TIPP poll, Romney’s lead among independents is 46-38. No Democrat has won the presidency during the last half century without also winning independent voters. The irony of the bitter red-blue divide is that the few “purple” voters immune to the polarization increasingly decide elections.
If this race is about, as Obama’s leading campaign surrogate once believed, “the economy, stupid,” then the contest favors Romney. In the NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll, which featured a sampling bias in favor of the Democrats, respondents nevertheless favored Romney on the economy. When asked, “Who do you think is better prepared to create jobs and improve the economy over the next four years?” the polled chose Romney by 45-41. Other polls have also shown a Romney advantage on the question of the economy. (Read More)
Well, it won’t be long now until we know for sure if our well-founded suspicions of these polls are correct. Just don’t sit this out, Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan need every one of our votes, and so do our state and local candidates.
Update: Daily Pundit linked, and made the point that there will be more polls, so get out and vote even if you’re in a blue state so you can help get that popular vote count up there for Romney to counter the spin that could ensue if things are close in swing states. (Sorry about the run-on sentence.) Also, don’t pay too much attention to the exit polls. They’re often wrong.