What To Watch For On Immigration

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Harry Reid is pretty confident that the Gang of Eight’s immigration bill is going to pass in the Senate. Unfortunately, he has the usual list of RINO suspects he can count on to vote for this turd. The big question is what will John Boehner do when the bill is sent to the House.

Conn Carroll noted that members in the House have been working on a separate immigration bill, but that won’t matter if Boehner brings the Senate bill to the floor for a vote.

Ultimately, however, the substance of what is in the Goodlatte or bipartisan bills is irrelevant. All that really matters is how Boehner brings a bill to the floor.

If Boehner brings a House-created bill to the floor, whether its a Goodlatte bill or a path-to-citizenship bill, then you can expect a real fight over amnesty after that bill passes and it heads to the Senate.

But, if Boehner calls up the Senate’s Schumer-Rubio bill, then the fix is in.

Once the House passes the shell of the Senate bill, no matter what policy is actually in it, that bill will go straight to conference committee. And conference can do whatever they want.

This means Boehner could call up the Senate bill, gut it, put in super tough Goodlatte reforms that a majority of House Republicans could vote for, and then pass it to conference committee.

Conference would then take the House-passed Senate bill, re-gut it, and put back in everything that is awful about Schumer-Rubio: the La Raza slush fund, the brand new wage-setting Bureau of Immigration and Labor Market Research, the instant legalization without any enforceable border security, etc.

That bill would then go back to the House where it would pass with near-unanimous Democratic support and a few Republican votes. (Read More)

Mark Krikorian said basically the same thing during an interview with John Hawkins.

There’s still an outside chance to beat it in the Senate, which would be kind of remarkable if that happened. The likelihood of it actually getting through the House is obviously dramatically less. I’m less worried about that part, although what I fear is that the House may pass something small and narrow, but as long as it has the word immigration in it then Boehner can just get together with Reid and re-write immigration law between the two of them and then send it back saying, “Look Conference Committee did this. This is what we came up with, vote for it or else.” Most Republicans won’t vote for it, but if Boehner is willing to bring it to the floor for the Democrats to vote for with 15 Republicans passing it, then we’re screwed. But it seems to me that’s the thing. In a sense, the whole thing comes down to whether Boehner is willing to destroy the Republican Party or not. It’s kind of melodramatic, but the future of the Republic rests on him. (Read More)

Well, that’s a scary thought.

Keep an eye on Boehner once this passes in the Senate, if he brings the bill to the floor as described above then you’ll know the fix was in.

Update: On the other hand, there’s still an outside chance that the bill could still die in the Senate. Wouldn’t that be a bit of unexpected good news.