2010 was pretty bad for Democrats and it’s beginning to look like 2014 is going to be even worse. A few months ago some of them thought they had at least a snowball’s chance in hell of regaining control of the House. But now thanks to the disaster known as Obamacare they will be lucky if they keep control of the Senate. Republicans only need 6 seats to turn the tables, and the possibility of them picking up as many as 12 seats is looking increasingly likely.
Back in July, Five Thirty Eight’s election guru Nate Silver believed that control of the Senate was a tossup. That has all changed now that voters got their first real look at the brutal consequences of ObamaCare.
Starting with the generic ballot that simply pits Republican lawmakers against their Democrat counterparts, the movement towards the GOP has been striking. In the Real Clear Politics average of these polls, going back as far as the beginning of the year, Democrats have consistently led by 3 to 4 points. During the government shutdown, Democrats leaped to 6 and 7 point leads. Since the disastrous rollout of ObamaCare, though, Republicans are not only in the lead by 2.5 points, they have led in every poll but one since November 10.
This generic polling is reflected in the available polling of individual Senate seats. (Read More)
I know we still have 11 months until the elections, but it’s unlikely that the public perception of Obamacare will change before then, especially after the next wave of cancellations begins.