In the past few days I’ve read a few things indicating things are looking better for the Democrats in the midterm elections. The new meme is that Obamacare isn’t that unpopular anymore, so why would anyone vote the Democrats out of office? I’m sure that’s what they like to tell themselves, but if you look at this Public Opinion Strategies chart you’ll see it’s probably just wishful thinking.
On virtually every measure of which way — and how strong — the winds are blowing at the moment, the 2014 election looks to be shaping up worse for Democrats than recent “shellacking” elections both parties have endured. Perhaps most important of those factors is presidential job approval, which has long correlated with gains (and losses) for his party in midterm elections. Obama’s rating — a -8 — puts him in territory resembling where he stood in 2010 and not that far from George W. Bush’s disastrous -18 score just prior to his party’s disastrous 2006 election.
This would explain why Harry Reid has been acting even crazier than usual lately, why Obama is out there trying to scare Americans over global warming, and why Elizabeth Warren is trying to ram through her student loan bill. Expect them to become even more unhinged the closer we get to the fall.
Then again, John Boehner could make the Republican base really mad by pushing through immigration reform. Let’s just hope he doesn’t wait until a few days after the election and get it done during the lame duck session. He really does want to get it done. Oh, and he wants Jeb Bush to run for president in 2016.